Sociodemographic Impact

The research team examined the impact of HIV/AIDS on various sociodemographic factors in the three countries. These factors included mortality, life expectancy, population and orphanhood.

AIDS is projected to increase infant mortality up to twofold and child mortality up to threefold, erasing gains made over 50 years in child survival. The declines in infant and child survival will be steepest in Zimbabwe, where health advances had been greatest.

Among adults ages 15 to 49, mortality is expected to triple from levels already eight times higher than those of Western countries. AIDS accounts for 60 percent to 80 percent of deaths among adults in this age group in Zimbabwe and Zambia. The effect of AIDS on adult mortality is currently less pronounced in South Africa's more recent epidemic. By 2010, however, at least 4 million South Africans, 1.5 million Zimbabweans and 800,000 Zambians will have died of AIDS.

AIDS has already had a dramatic effect on life expectancy in the three countries. By 2010, life expectancy will be lower than it was in 1950.

Life expectancy in Zimbabwe, Zambia and South Africa (years)

Country	Life Expectancy
	1990	1995	2010
Zimbabwe	56	48	40
Zambia	50	42	33
South Africa	63	57	48

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Because many women have children before they develop AIDS, the epidemic's effect on population growth is attenuated. In Zambia, where mortality is offset by high fertility, population growth may slow from 3 percent to about 1 percent by 2010. Zimbabwe and South Africa (and Botswana and Swaziland) -- countries in which exceptionally high prevalence coincides with lower fertility -- may see actual declines in population by 2010.

AIDS also affects population structure. It distorts the population pyramid, removing adults of sexually active age, and leaving children and the elderly. This will increase the already high dependency ratio from 48 percent to 60 percent.

If the 1980s were the decade of HIV and the 1990s the decade of AIDS, the 2000s will be an era of orphans (defined as children younger than 15 who have lost a mother or both parents). More than 90 percent of the estimated 10 million children orphaned by AIDS live in sub-Saharan Africa. In Zimbabwe, Zambia and South Africa, 20 percent to 30 percent of all children younger than 15 may be orphans by 2010.